The core elements of Stage 2 of the study comprised market research and demand and revenue assessments. Market research was conducted by means of self-completion questionnaires distributed by post to a random sample of residents of the major settlements in the study corridor. Over 8000 questionnaires were distributed and 1599 were returned and analysed, a response rate of 20%.

The questionnaire included a travel diary to obtain details of destinations visited, frequency of visit and mode used. 83% of journeys made use of the car whilst rail was used for part or all of 6% of journeys made. The proportion of journeys by car is similar to the national average, whilst the proportion using rail is higher than the national average of 2%.

The perceptions of the current rail service on offer were investigated as part of the questionnaire survey. Throughout much of the study area, awareness of the service frequency could be improved. In general, only 40-50% of respondents correctly described the frequency of services at their usual rail station, and this proportion was lower west of Worcester and in Great Malvern. The majority of those incorrectly describing the frequency perceived the frequency to be worse than it actually is.

A detailed investigation of trip patterns for respondents in the north west Oxfordshire distribution area has shown a level of flexibility in rail-head. This suggests that rail users are prepared to travel to a station with a good level of service. Whilst this implies facilities should be concentrated on existing well served stations, the converse argument also applies in that additional calls at the minor stations could offer relief for congested station car parks such as Charlbury and Kingham.

With respect to demand for a new station west of Worcester at Henwick, residents in this area travel primarily to Birmingham, Malvern and Worcester. Of existing trips from this area to Birmingham, 28% already use the train. A new station in this area could attract considerable use, however much of it would be either abstracted from existing stations or be restricted to short journeys into Worcester itself. Only 25% of respondents considered a new station close to their home would encourage them to use rail more.

Respondents in Chipping Campden are already using rail for 5% of their journeys, a high proportion given the town has no rail station. The majority travel to Moreton-in-Marsh to catch the train. Popular destinations are Stratford-upon-Avon, Evesham, Moreton-in-Marsh and Cheltenham. Rail would not be an attractive mode to some of these destinations even given a station in the village.

Demand and revenue forecasts for six service enhancements were undertaken using the Great Western 2000 model. This model represents rail and highway networks in detail across Southern England, including the study area. The model was used to forecast the additional patronage attributable to rail service enhancements, including modal transfer from car and coach. Incremental revenue increases were set against incremental changes in operating costs to identify those options which could make a contribution to capital costs. A 30 year financial evaluation was undertaken which identified the level of contribution to capital costs available.

Enhancements to frequency, particularly at peak times but also throughout the day, plus reduced journey times were found to be the most attractive options. It is important to note that at this stage, the financial evaluations presented in this report take no account of the performance costs and benefits, rate of return on investments or the implications of revenue sharing. In addition, the implications of consequent higher frequencies between Oxford and London needs consideration in relation to the capacity required.